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Nick Halling's Road to the Super Bowl NFL Blog
Right, the winning post is in sight. Just two more games, then the madness of the Super Bowl. Time's running out if you want to make a killing but this weekend's Championship games might just help swell the bank balance – if we take time for some due diligence, and finally get a little slice of luck. It's the Bears entertaining the Packers, and the Jets visiting the Steelers, and both sets of teams know each other very well indeed. Does history help when looking at an individual matchup? Probably not, if we're honest. The Packers lost to the Falcons in the regular season, but gained revenge last week. Ditto the Bears over the Seahawks, and the Jets over New England. Even Pittsburgh, who lost at home to the Ravens, managed to get their revenge. With that in mind, let's dive into this weekend's matchups and see what we come up with.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
This is the third meeting between the two teams. The Bears won 20-17 at Soldier Field in week three, but we can pretty much discount that one. Chicago's offense is a completely different animal now, while the Packers' roster is significantly different, injuries having had a major impact on their line-ups both offensively and defensively. Of much more relevance is the week 17 encounter at Lambeau, where the Packers won 10-3 to qualify for the playoffs against a Bears team which had nothing other than pride to play for. What we can say, however, is that game one produced 37 points, while game two yielded just 13. The Total Points spread this weekend is 42-45, so you can draw your own conclusions there.
The Packers thrive on big plays, but managed just two in week 17, a 20-yarder to Donald Driver, and a 46-yarder to Greg Jennings which helped set up that late game-winning touchdown. Things probably won't be too much different on Sunday. The Bears' Cover-2 base defense is built not to allow big plays, so while Rodgers is capable of putting up some decent yardage, it probably won't come easy. Green Bay's offense isn't the one the Bears saw in week 17. The Packers unveiled running back James Starks in the wild card game against Philadelphia to devastating effect. Starks didn't run nearly as effectively last week in Atlanta, and the Bears rank second overall against the run, so don't expect him to run riot at Soldier Field. What he does do, however, is bring a semblance of balance to the unit, something the Bears will have to take account of.
It's the same story with the Bears. Over the last few weeks, Chicago have committed to the run, and the results have been impressive. They stayed with the ground game into the fourth quarter in week 17, with Forte finishing up with 91 yards on 15 carries. A similar effort on Sunday should see the Bears to the Super Bowl. Green Bay are not an easy team to run on, but there is evidence of them wearing down the longer a game goes on. But for that strategy to work, the Bears need to keep it close.
I think it's safe to say there might be one or two sacks in this one. In week 17, Green Bay blitzed heavily, being rewarded with six sacks of Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler: that makes it 14 sacks over the last four games the two teams have played. Cutler can make all the throws, but has that bad habit of tossing up a couple of howlers. He got away with it against Seattle: the Packers might not be as generous. In contrast, Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers looks like the best quarterback in the post-season, with six touchdowns, no interceptions, and a freakishly high 77.8 completion percentage. That's near perfect play. It's this quarterback differential which makes the Packers favourites in this one, and it's a view I tend to share. Buy Green Bay with confidence.
New York Jets at Pittsburg Steelers
They might not have convinced during the regular season, but make no mistake, the Jets are the real thing now. Victories on the road in Indianapolis and New England prove that, and frankly, I'm surprised that the oddsmakers have them as underdogs in this one. There's much for the Jets to feel good about, not least a come-from-behind win at Heinz Field last month (although the Steelers were without Troy Polamalu for that game, and that's something to take into account when looking closely at this matchup).
Nobody runs on the Steelers, who lead the NFL allowing barely 62 rushing yards per game. But the team which gained the most rushing yards against Pittsburgh in the regular season? You got it. The Jets. OK, it was only 106 yards, but that gave their offense enough balance to allow quarterback Mark Sanchez to pick his moments. Sanchez still looks a liability, but the Jets are doing a great job of not putting too much on his shoulders, and particularly of avoiding early mistakes. Both Jet running backs, LaDanian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene, are running well right now, and another 100-yard combined haul is certainly not beyond them. And that alone should help open up some holes for Sanchez to exploit with Braylon Edwards (the star of the regular season win), or former Steeler Super Bowl hero Santonio Holmes. A recipe of 100 rushing yards and 170 passing yards could be enough to get the Jets the win.
On the other side of the ball, coach Rex Ryan has the Jets defense playing at a very high level, with strategies which first restricted Peyton Manning, then bamboozled Tom Brady. Now he goes for the hat-trick. Last week, Ryan's plan called for seven men dropping into zones, giving Brady nowhere to throw to. I'm not sure a similar strategy will work against the Steelers. For one thing, if they drop seven, Pittsburgh will check down into a running play. And the Steelers definitely have balance: facing a Ravens team who are hard to run on last week, the game plan produced 32 passes and 31 runs – now that's balance.
&Second, Pittsburgh's receivers have far more speed than either the Colts or the Patriots as a group. Mike Wallace is a serious burner (not even Darrelle Revis can be trusted to cover him one-on-one), but those youngsters, Emanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown, aren't too shabby either. My guess, and its only a guess, is that Ryan will assign Revis to Hines Ward, trusting the speedy Antonio Cromartie to cover Wallace on the other side. And that might just leave tight end Heath Miller, or a slot receiver like Brown or Sanders, with plenty of favourable matchup opportunities.
I wonder how much the absence of Jets right tackle Damien Woody will hurt the visitors. Not only was he their best run blocker, but he was also pretty handy in protection too. Replacement Wayne Hunter will have his hands full with Pittsburgh's Lamar Woodley. Last week, James Harrison had his way with Baltimore's Michael Oher to the tune of three sacks. This week it could be Woodley's turn to shine.
However, the big X-factor in this game has nothing to do with Simon Cowell. Troy Polamalu is back for the Steelers, and he can change a game on his own. It might actually hurt the Jets that they haven't seen him this season. Will he be dropping in coverage? Will he blitz? Where will he blitz from? Polamalu confuses the best of them, and Sanchez certainly isn't the best. If Polamalu produces a pick or two, the Steelers will be on their way to yet another Super Bowl.
There shouldn't be too many points in this one. Then again, there shouldn't have been too many last week, yet the Steelers and Ravens combined to shatter the over, thanks mainly to a slew of turnovers. The spread 37-40 makes sense, and for once, I'm going to sit on the fence. However, as to who's going to win, there's something about the Jets I like. They have produced two flawless game plans already, and know that they can beat Pittsburgh in their own back yard. Here's predicting a third success and a chance for the Jets to finally lay the ghost of dear old Joe Namath and Super Bowl III all those years ago to rest..
Please note: The content above solely contains the views and opinions of Nick Halling and not Sporting Index Ltd. Sporting Index offers it services on an 'execution only' basis under FSA regulations and does not provide investment advice.
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